Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 0.102671 0.119753 0.139422 0.163889 0.193706 0.229113 0.274717
2025-10-12 0.082520 0.104157 0.131600 0.169492 0.221294 0.290891 0.393660
2025-10-19 0.067241 0.090723 0.123085 0.172101 0.246579 0.359159 0.549735
2025-10-26 0.055829 0.079930 0.115729 0.174832 0.274232 0.443239 0.773224
2025-11-02 0.045582 0.068659 0.105242 0.170462 0.290886 0.519920 1.035594
2025-11-09 0.036907 0.058048 0.093493 0.161112 0.296993 0.584064 1.327446
2025-11-16 0.031719 0.052084 0.088213 0.162126 0.324593 0.709752 1.881325
2025-11-23 0.027464 0.046891 0.083187 0.162464 0.352425 0.857589 2.677436
2025-11-30 0.024360 0.043180 0.080154 0.166329 0.391800 1.068806 4.015937
2025-12-07 0.021667 0.039736 0.076909 0.168973 0.431094 1.319470 6.046751
2025-12-14 0.018841 0.035513 0.071121 0.163854 0.447480 1.516518 8.376968
2025-12-21 0.015685 0.030091 0.061616 0.146479 0.418797 1.523194 9.641072
2025-12-28 0.014186 0.028007 0.059481 0.148987 0.460520 1.896262 15.469528
2026-01-04 0.013105 0.026650 0.058795 0.155681 0.524022 2.486020 27.791566
2026-01-11 0.012012 0.025075 0.057245 0.159470 0.581524 3.170809 49.820114
2026-01-18 0.011050 0.023642 0.055762 0.163170 0.644330 4.060527 94.451922
2026-01-25 0.009966 0.021738 0.052606 0.160116 0.674925 4.813716 162.490465
2026-02-01 0.008870 0.019636 0.048477 0.152186 0.675920 5.341621 253.169140
2026-02-08 0.008206 0.018526 0.046971 0.153752 0.733907 6.717740 549.047070
2026-02-15 0.007597 0.017466 0.045396 0.154579 0.791013 8.397182 1299.270145
2026-02-22 0.007136 0.016723 0.044637 0.158650 0.877105 11.066328 4197.131066
2026-03-01 0.006692 0.015962 0.043660 0.161509 0.961375 14.428020 17213.830509
2026-03-08 0.006143 0.014830 0.041256 0.156945 0.984756 16.818320 60612.756862